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Fed Speak and Tariff Threats Spook the Energy Complex

Market Overview US crude oil and products bucked the trend following a week of high volatility containing statements from Chairman of the Fed, Jerome Powell and tariff threats out of the White House. Last Tuesday, Jerome Powell signaled business as usual for the Fed, which marks a continuation of Janet Yellen’s preferred strategy of gradual …

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Hedge Funds Hold Net Positioning Steady Despite Fall in Crude Prices

Economic Indicators: FOMC Meeting Minutes from January 31 meeting: February 21 @ 2:00 pm EST GBP Gross Domestic Product 4Q: February 22 @ 04:30 am EST JPY National Consumer Price Index: February 22 @ 6:30 pm EST CAD Consumer Price Index: February 23 @ 8:30 am EST Energy and Global Markets The US Dollar and …

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Oil Falls as US Production Rises; Declining Exports Point to Continued Builds

WTI futures have fallen roughly 10% since January 25th as US oil production ramps up. Recent reports out of the EIA show production climbing to 10.251 million bpd from 9.919 million bpd. WTI, Brent, and Dubai crude continue their sustained backwardation despite the rise in US production. OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report released today acknowledges …

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Crude Oil Makes New Highs as U.S. Inventories Fall for Tenth Straight Week; US Dollar Volatility Skewed Price to the Upside

In a week of political whiplash, the US Dollar stands on uncertain ground as traders grow weary of signals from the White House and Department of the Treasury. The US Dollar has been facing heavy selling pressure in recent weeks as the market rotates into other currencies such as the Euro or British Pound. The …

Crude Oil Makes New Highs as U.S. Inventories Fall for Tenth Straight Week; US Dollar Volatility Skewed Price to the Upside Read More »

Speculators Challenge Historic Long Positioning as Global Inventories Fall

Speculative positioning in NYMEX WTI futures is nearing historic levels as net position for Managed Money contracts climbs to 432,650 and the hedge fund ratio jumps to 15.13. Net positioning is firmly above its high of 405,328 made on 2/21/2017 and the hedge fund ratio is 0.07 away from its high of 15.20 formed on …

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Empirical Models Suggest Higher Prices; Risk Reversal Threat Remains High

Long-term global supply & demand models suggest current oil prices are underperforming historical values. Regression analysis of 6-month average supply-demand differentials versus WTI futures prices since 2005 have oil near $80 per barrel. An intercommodity model regressing oil prices to correlated commodities also suggests higher prices, although to a lesser extent. As of December 31, …

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