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OPEC Signals Rising Production, Energy Complex Falls

The energy complex has sold off following a surprise announcement by OPEC that they are considering an increase in production as early as next month. The drastic reduction in Venezuelan oil production did most of the heavy lifting for the oil cartel as Brent crude hit OPEC’s price target of $80 per barrel. While the …

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Maduro ‘Wins’ Election, Spells Continued Trouble for Venezuelan Crude

Market Overview Maduro has won another term as president amidst accusations of vote rigging. During Maduro’s tenure, Venezuelan oil production fell roughly 40% to recent lows of 1.5 million. The drop in production has offered sustained support for global crude oil prices and Maduro’s victory looks to maintain the trend. Additionally, President Trump issued a …

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Rising Cost of Capital Threatens Bullish Fundamentals

Market Overview WTI futures had a slight extension over the previous weeks rally with prompt month contracts trading as high as $69.56. The fundamental environment remains supportive of oil prices on bullish demand and economic growth, but short-term market conditions warrant a corrective move lower. The rising cost of capital in the US has investors …

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Sellers Looking for Positions as Global Risk Unwinds

Market Overview Risk premium that was priced into the energy complex because of tensions with Syria is beginning to sell off. While the coordinated strikes on Syrian chemical weapons facilities by the United States, Great Britain, and France was a clear escalation of intent, selling pressure found its way into the market as traders see …

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Energy Complex Trends Higher Despite Trade Tensions

Market Overview The potential trade war between the US and China dominated price action last week and remains the focus for the coming sessions. Early trading this week has seen a rally in WTI despite the lingering threat. Comments from President Trump early Sunday morning took some of the pressure off commodities as he pointed …

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Trade War Fears and Equity Performance Weigh Heavily on Crude

Market Overview Trade war tensions continue to mount as China issues tariffs on US exports worth $3 billion following the issuance of tariffs on Chinese goods in excesses of $50 billion by the US. In prior weeks, the energy complex appeared little phased by further talk of trade wars with WTI posting a significant rally …

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WTI Challenges Highs As OPEC Talks 2019 Supply Cut

Market Overview Not long after we said the technicals across the energy complex were setting up for bearish momentum, WTI prices broke above key resistance and quickly climbed toward $66. Several geopolitical issues preceded crude’s rally. First and foremost, Saudi Arabia issued comments suggesting the OPEC led supply cut agreement may be extended into 2019. …

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Technicals Looking Bearish for Crude and Products, Waiting for Fundamental Catalyst

Market Overview Intermarket relationships are giving mixed signals as crude and product pricing tries to find direction. US Dollar performance and the trend on Eurodollar yields point to short-term gains across the energy complex while global equities suggest bearish price action going forward. Last week’s Oil Market Report released by the IEA on March 15th …

Technicals Looking Bearish for Crude and Products, Waiting for Fundamental Catalyst Read More »

Technicals and Shaky OPEC Compliance Point to Further Losses

Market Overview A strong close in US equities and moderate weakness in the US Dollar saw WTI futures bounce from $60.00 to $62.30 during late week trading. However, OPEC jitters over the weekend led to a good deal of profit taking as hedge funds continue to liquidate their net long exposure. The charts remain bearish …

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